This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: How would you compare current weakening market conditions to what happened in 2022, when rates increased quickly?

Answer: The DC Metro/Arlington real estate market has slowed considerably, driven by mortgage rates that have climbed since July, rapidly in September. Showings are down, listings are taking longer to sell, and buyers have become increasingly cautious.

The obvious comparison is 2022, when mortgage rates rose at extraordinary speed and abruptly ended one of the most competitive markets we have ever experienced. The current rate increase is much smaller, but it’s having a significant effect because the 2026 market was in a more vulnerable position than in 2022.

The 2022 rate shock hit a market with extraordinary buyer demand and almost no available inventory. Buyers were eager to purchase a home.

The 2026 market has less cushion than in 2022. Rates and prices made payments more uncomfortable, buyer enthusiasm was lower, and we had considerably more inventory relative to demand.

What happened in 2022

During the first half of 2022:

• 60% of Arlington homes went under contract within ten days

• Median cumulative days on market was seven

• Nearly 69% of homes sold at or above the original asking price

• Almost 49% of homes sold above the original price

• Only 14% of homes required a price reduction

By the second half of 2022:

• The share going under contract within ten days fell to 34%

• Median cumulative days on market increased to 21.5 days

• Only 34% sold at or above the original price

• Price reductions increased to 36%

• The share selling below 95% of the original price tripled from 9% to 27%

Some of that reflects normal seasonality, but the same-period comparison confirms a substantial shift. Compared with the second half of 2021, sales fell 33%, the share selling at or above the original price declined eleven points, and price reductions increased six points.

However, prices did not collapse. The median sale-to-original-ask-price declined from 99% to 97.7%; a modest price correction. The larger correction occurred in transaction volume, competition, and buyer leverage.

Less demand cushion to absorb a smaller rate shock

The first half of 2026 was strong by most historical standards, but it was less competitive than early 2022. Sales volume was 22% lower, the share selling at or above the original price fell from 69% to 59%, and the share selling above the original price declined from 49% to 37%.

Months of supply (a metric that measures supply and demand) shows the difference clearly. During July and August 2022, Arlington averaged 1.5 months of supply (lower MoS favors sellers). During the same months of 2026, it averaged 2.5 months of supply, approximately 60% higher.

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